Tuesday, December 20, 2011
don't let a winner turn into a loser!
I missed out by 1 pip, but could've caught it at $3 positive (I moved my stop closer) and then at .30c when I should've closed out.
I t was one of Dom's calls that I modified because I got in late
Thursday, December 15, 2011
TITZ:3 I bottled it and missed out on 200ish pips
I entered at a good spot 1.5462 anticipating the move up, My stop was at 1.5429, price came close to my stop which was just below the 200 MA.
I could start to see a downward slope starting to develop, which spooked me and I resolved to get out the next time price came up to my entry.
I got 1 pip out first and then took the other 2 10 minutes later instead of riding the ulcer roller-coaster.
Lost Opportunity is better than lost capital, but this opportunity would've had me back at break even (grr).
I must hold fast to my convictions and have confidence in the analysis.
Monday, December 12, 2011
TITZ:1 GBP AUD
The 1st trade following the TITZ test,
Be Bold - be consistent and disciplined, go in 3 lots and scale profits out.
Although Scaling out is not how Grant does it because in general you don't scale out losses.
I can't remember why I chose to Sell, maybe 'cause the curve was leveling out and it looked like the 23% would hold as resistance, anticipating a continuation down.
On the 5 minute you can see some strong momentum down which would have encouraged me.
I held the stop open to see if it would bounce, which was a test on discipline.
TITZ:2 GBP AUD
Kind of a coin toss, I saw the 15m bounce off the 200, it was a 23% retracement and in the direction of the shorter trend (Bullish), I couldn't find any divergence and was leaning to Sell until I figured that would be counter-trend.
I saw 25pips looked to be the harmonic number on the 1 Hour.
I went in with .03 lots with the idea of scaling out once I had $5 profit and managed to take $1.80 and then put a trailing stop of 20 on it.
I didn't put a TP but was looking at the previous (yesterday's) peak as a Target. I walked away and missed the top.
When does "If not monitoring, place 1:1" apply?
I put the stop at 45 points, a little less than TITZ:1 which was 50 ish.
The 2nd 2/3rds closed out 1 pip less than the 1st 1/3rd.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
GBP AUD missed by 3 pips!
I saw a support line forming around 1.5209 which was also near the 78 fib retracement and possibly a 23% on an smaller move.
I also found a slim divergence on the AO by about 20 points.
I knew it was a tight stop, thinking the support line would hold or it wouldn't - but I think support lines are a bit more fuzzy
The GB PMI came out positive and there was a very short spike at 22:28 but by 22:30 it was back to normal and started to go down.
I was thinking the PMI might pull it up, but it didn't, so I left it - I could've/should've closed out for a couple of pips loss but went to bed instead.
AB was anticipating low AU Bank numbers and for the AUDUSD to drop (and it did for 2 hours but returned in 7), which was probably the cause for my failed trade to go 1:2
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
GBP AUD
I wanted to jump in on a long so I could ride to the top 600ish away.
I jumped in and ended up 140 up, which was probably the end of wave 5, I held on for more and got retraced to my opening, (shoulda moved my stop or taken the profit?) and then opened another long full of confidence.
As I was going to bed I put 1 of them 1:1 and came out on top.
Over the Thanksgiving weekend, Belgium got downgraded which may have been the cause for the week opening to be so low and got stopped out.
Most previous Monday's have opened closely to the close so I wasn't anticipating a gap.
AB says the phoenix has only worked once in the last 4 times this year when the gap was more than 100.
GBP USD
I noticed the up trend line and thought the candle had broken through it, along with a slim divergence on the AO.
Sentiment was generally Bearish so I was gonna join in,
but the FED and central banks all got to together and shared USD to EUR which weakened the USD and sent everything else up.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204012004577069960192509068.html
Actually looking back there was convergence of a 50 and 61 fib level for support to go up.
Am I looking for evidence to support (ill) preconceived sentiment rather than what the charts are saying?
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