don't let a winner turn into a loser!

I missed out by 1 pip, but could've caught it at $3 positive (I moved my stop closer) and then at .30c when I should've closed out.

I t was one of Dom's calls that I modified because I got in late

TITZ:3 I bottled it and missed out on 200ish pips

I entered at a good spot 1.5462 anticipating the move up, My stop was at 1.5429, price came close to my stop which was just below the 200 MA.

I could start to see a downward slope starting to develop, which spooked me and I resolved to get out the next time price came up to my entry.

I got 1 pip out first and then took the other 2 10 minutes later instead of riding the ulcer roller-coaster.

Lost Opportunity is better than lost capital, but this opportunity would've had me back at break even (grr).

I must hold fast to my convictions and have confidence in the analysis.

TITZ:1 GBP AUD

The 1st trade following the TITZ test,

Be Bold - be consistent and disciplined, go in 3 lots and scale profits out.

Although Scaling out is not how Grant does it because in general you don't scale out losses.

I can't remember why I chose to Sell, maybe 'cause the curve was leveling out and it looked like the 23% would hold as resistance, anticipating a continuation down.

On the 5 minute you can see some strong momentum down which would have encouraged me.

I held the stop open to see if it would bounce, which was a test on discipline.

TITZ:2 GBP AUD

Kind of a coin toss, I saw the 15m bounce off the 200, it was a 23% retracement and in the direction of the shorter trend (Bullish), I couldn't find any divergence and was leaning to Sell until I figured that would be counter-trend.

I saw 25pips looked to be the harmonic number on the 1 Hour.

I went in with .03 lots with the idea of scaling out once I had $5 profit and managed to take $1.80 and then put a trailing stop of 20 on it.

I didn't put a TP but was looking at the previous (yesterday's) peak as a Target. I walked away and missed the top.

When does "If not monitoring, place 1:1" apply?

I put the stop at 45 points, a little less than TITZ:1 which was 50 ish.

The 2nd 2/3rds closed out 1 pip less than the 1st 1/3rd.

GBP AUD missed by 3 pips!

I saw a support line forming around 1.5209 which was also near the 78 fib retracement and possibly a 23% on an smaller move.

I also found a slim divergence on the AO by about 20 points.

I knew it was a tight stop, thinking the support line would hold or it wouldn't - but I think support lines are a bit more fuzzy

The GB PMI came out positive and there was a very short spike at 22:28 but by 22:30 it was back to normal and started to go down.

I was thinking the PMI might pull it up, but it didn't, so I left it - I could've/should've closed out for a couple of pips loss but went to bed instead.

AB was anticipating low AU Bank numbers and for the AUDUSD to drop (and it did for 2 hours but returned in 7), which was probably the cause for my failed trade to go 1:2

GBP AUD

I wanted to jump in on a long so I could ride to the top 600ish away.

I jumped in and ended up 140 up, which was probably the end of wave 5, I held on for more and got retraced to my opening, (shoulda moved my stop or taken the profit?) and then opened another long full of confidence.

As I was going to bed I put 1 of them 1:1 and came out on top.

Over the Thanksgiving weekend, Belgium got downgraded which may have been the cause for the week opening to be so low and got stopped out.

Most previous Monday's have opened closely to the close so I wasn't anticipating a gap.
AB says the phoenix has only worked once in the last 4 times this year when the gap was more than 100.

GBP USD

I noticed the up trend line and thought the candle had broken through it, along with a slim divergence on the AO.
Sentiment was generally Bearish so I was gonna join in,
but the FED and central banks all got to together and shared USD to EUR which weakened the USD and sent everything else up.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204012004577069960192509068.html

Actually looking back there was convergence of a 50 and 61 fib level for support to go up.

Am I looking for evidence to support (ill) preconceived sentiment rather than what the charts are saying?

complicated reasoning

I went short because AB was keen for it,

I left it overnight without a TP - I shoulda set it to 1:1 or 1:2 and been happy, greed played a factor as to why I didn't.

The next morning LTG were anticipating the return to 200 and to renter short.

I missed the re-enter but had moved/increased my stop so was still in and now more hoping it would drop.

Previous price movements didn't look likely to drop to me so I was relying on Fundamentals to come true.

the 1st one

I picked this one on my own.

I think on the Daily it was just coming back under the 50 EMA and I could see the engulfing candle forming on the 4H.

I went for a 1:1 because I was going to bed and it all worked out :)

Could've gone 1:2 but that wasn't the plan.

Gotta add the spread!

I missed out by 2 pips (on the sell price)! If I had of included the spread difference it would have worked :(

Last Time BOJ Intervened

Last time was 3rd August and the USDJPY gained 330ish pips and within 5 days was back where they started.
This time round it gained 400ish pips, how long will it take to return to 76.0?

When the Swiss bank stepped in

2011 - 09 -06

I didn't know what was going on and later found the EURCHF was to be fixed at 1.2.

right place right time :)

Going to bed = 1:1 TP

If I can't watch the trade and move the SL then I must set a TP of 1:1!

i think it's going to go down

trying 2%

I jumped in on Big Es entry for the Sell. There is definitely a bullish trend but within a channel.

I found the channel after I was in the trade and then looked for support of my trade. The spike was a breakout of the channel, I did find some Fibnode support which is where I put the Stop Loss and I pushed the risk to 2% to give it some breathing room.


The breathing room lasted most of the night but I guess fundamentals or something else pushed it over.

Find more support for the trade before I get in, not after.

playing chicken with the Euro - 15023114

This was also only 56 pips against me on the tallest bar and I'd be 156 pips up by now

listening to AB - 15023555

So this was 56 pips against me to the top of that pin and I'd be 85 pips up by now.
I closed this one manually after an earlier AUDUSD trade got taken out on a 25 pip Trailing Stop.

Shoulda held fast and trusted AB's call

A missed opportunity

Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission R/O Swap Trade P/L
14984515 2011.09.20 07:57 buy 0.01 audnzdfxf 1.2476 1.2446 0.0000 2011.09.20 13:47 1.2446 0.00 0.00 -2.41

I stuck with my 1% Stop Loss rule, and got taken out. If I had been brave and used 2% I could have been in longer and made some cash.

But because it was soon after the 2 big losses rules needed to be followed.

15005881 - Daring the Euro

I waited for the 3rd candle on the 1 hour to be bullish and stepped in following Big E's method.

The stop was greater than the TP so the risk/reward ratio isn't to hot but I didn't know how high it would go (who does?) and therefore where to put it.

I figured ti's make the .618 so put it just above, in the end it nearly made the 100, but I had to go to bed and couldn't monitor it.

Fools rush in

Sold in a rush at the end of the trend.
On the Monday everybody else was selling in a frenzy so I did too, the spread widened to around 20 from it's usual 7 ish.

Covel's book says it's alright to jump in at the tail, because you don't really know if it's the tail until it's over.

This goes against Big E's method (Trading Made Simple) which has been going ok (overall slightly positive).

Convinced of the fundamental Greece default and inevitable weakening of the EUR.
This trade was in along with a EURUSD - combined they hit 10% of total equity (-$40) so I had to pull one of them.

Still waiting on Sive's prediction for the EURUSD to drop

First thing Monday Morning probably isn't best

fuckit - shoulda held the planned stop loss at 70

what was I thinking?

Instead of buying AUD I bought GBPJPY, I'm not sure what the logic was behind the trade, it might have more room to go up according to the RSI

Trading with Volume

Volume is one of the strongest indicators for market action. Using it can not only empower your trade entries but also warn you of weakening trends. In this article you will learn to incorporate Volume in your trading.


Volume precedes Price
We will now describe several truths regarding indicators, price and predictive abilities. Indicators are a derivative of price, meaning that they are calculated from information extracted from price, therefore they will always be somewhat lagging behind price and their predictive abilities will decrease.

Volume, unlike indicators, is not calculated from price, quite the opposite - price is the result of action of buyers and sellers which is presented as the Volume. This is the reason why Volume is a very strong technical tool and is very useful in predicting and trading the FOREX markets.

Volume should Confirm Price Action
Because of Volume's strong connection with price, it can be used as a leading indicator with regard to price action. The main principle for incorporating volume in your trading is that Volume should Confirm Price Action.

Example:
If price is in an uptrend, Volume should also be in uptrend. This signals that the uptrend is healthy and has 'fuel' for advancing.
If price is in a downtrend, Volume is also important though a bit less. A downtrend can take place even without a strong volume.
If price is in a range, Volume should be average and not too strong.

When volume does not confirm price movement - e.g. Price is moving up while Volume is moving down. Each divergence of Volume and Price can indicate that the trend is about to reverse. Note that this is merely an indication and not a trading signal. More confirmation and signals of other indicators should be used to confirm and take trades based on this analysis.


Indicators that Use Volume
In order to have a more objective means of analyzing Volume action, one can use several indicators that incorporate Volume in their calculation. This includes the Money Flow Index and Force Index.

The easiest method of trading with Volume is to place a Exponential Moving Average to smooth it. While the readings of actual, raw volume are hard to interpret, the smoothed values are easier to trade by and reach trading conclusions.

the Fractal technical Indicator

One of the most basic ways in which traders can determine a trend is through the use of fractals. Fractals essentially break down larger trends into extremely simple and predictable reversal patterns. This article will explain what fractals are and how you might apply them to your trading to enhance your profits.
What Are Fractals?
When many people think of fractals in the mathematical sense, they think of chaos theory and abstract mathematics. While these concepts do apply to the market (it being a nonlinear, dynamic system), most traders refer to fractals in a more literal sense. That is, as recurring patterns that can predict reversals among larger, more chaotic price movements.

These basic fractals are composed of five or more bars. The rules for identifying fractals are as follows:

* A bearish turning point occurs when there is a pattern with the highest high in the middle and two lower highs on each side.
* A bullish turning point occurs when there is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on each side.


The fractals shown in Figure 1 are two examples of perfect patterns. Note that many other less perfect patterns can occur, but the basic pattern should remain intact for the fractal to be valid.

The obvious drawback here is that fractals are lagging indicators - that is, a fractal can't be drawn until we are two days into the reversal. While this may be true, most significant reversals last many more bars, so most of the trend will remain intact (as we will see in the example below).

Applying Fractals to Trading
Like many trading indicators, fractals are best used in conjunction with other indicators or forms of analysis. Perhaps the most common confirmation indicator used with fractals is the "Alligator indicator", a tool that is created by using moving averages that factor in the use of fractal geometry. The standard rule states that all buy rules are only valid if below the "alligator's teeth" (the center average), and all sell rules are only valid if above the alligator's teeth.

Figure 2 is an example of such a setup:

As you can see, the primary drawback to this system is the large swings that take place. Notice, for example, that the latest fractal had a drawdown of over 100 pips and still has not hit an exit point. However, there are countless other techniques that can be applied in conjunction with fractals to produce profitable trading systems.







Figure 3 shows a forex trading setup that uses a combination of fractals (multiple time frames), Fibonacci-based moving averages (placed at 89, 144, 233, 377 and their inverses) and a momentum indicator. Let's look at a recent trade setup for the GBP/USD currency pair to see how fractals can help:

Figure 3

Here is a basic rule setup that is used when using a chart with a four-hour time frame:

* Initiate a position when the price has hit the farthest Fibonacci band, but only after a daily (D1) fractal takes place.
* Exit a position after a daily (D1) fractal reversal takes place.

Notice how the fractals pinpoint meaningful tops and bottoms? This helps to take the guesswork out of deciding at which Fibonacci level to trade - all we have to do is check to see if the daily fractal occurred. We should also note that the trend strength began increasing at the sell fractal, and topped at the buy fractal. Although we lose some pips with the confirmation, it saves us from losing out on mere market noise - 139 pips certainly isn't bad for three days! (For further reading, see Trading Without Noise.)

Things to Consider
Here are a few things to remember when using fractals:

* They are lagging indicators. They are best used as confirmation indicators to help confirm that a reversal did take place. Real-time tops and bottoms can be surmised with other techniques.
* The longer the time period (i.e. the number of bars required for a fractal), the more reliable the reversal. However, you should also remember that the longer the time period, the lower the number of signals generated.
* It is best to plot fractals in multiple time frames and use them in conjunction with one another. For example, only trade short-term fractals in the direction of the long-term ones. Along these same lines, long-term fractals are more reliable than short-term fractals.
* Always use fractals in conjunction with other indicators or systems. They work best as decision support tools, not as indicators on their own.

Conclusion
As you can see, fractals can be extremely powerful tools when used in conjunction with other indicators and techniques, especially when used to confirm reversals. The most common usage is with the "Alligator indicator"; however, there are other uses too, as we've seen here. Overall, fractals make excellent decision support tools for any trading method

Fibonacci and Forex: Trading Using the 88.6% Retracement

In this series of articles, we have so far built up a foundation of Fibonacci as applied to trading: how the Fibonacci ratios are derived, how to measure Fib Retracements and most recently how to measure Fib Extensions. This article focuses on trading withe 88.6% retracement.
Click here for more

Minimizing Your Risks (Smartly)

Traders often hear advertisements that tout outrageous gains like 50% in one week. We start trading for a while, and suddenly will reality sets in as we understand that these gains are not sustainable. Now that reality has set in, let's take a look at how a prudent trader goes about discovering how to control their risk in the Forex market.
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Fibonacci and Forex: Fibs with Chart Patterns

How can you use Fibonacci levels as part of a larger chart pattern? Find out here!
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How the Greek Drama Affects Forex Trading

If you're confused about how one country's trouble can affect the entire Forex world, you're not alone. Read this article to see how and why Greek's troubles are affecting the Forex market.
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When to Use a Take Profit Order

When Forex traders place their trades, the majority of them have no idea what their final destination is as far as price. Because of this, there is a certain set of situations that dictate whether or not you may want to place a take profit order when trading Forex.
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What are CFDs (and Why Should I Trade Them)?

CFDs or contracts for difference is a financial instrument that allows trader to participate in various markets that aren’t normally as flexible as the Forex market, but allows them to replicate that kind of leverage and granularity. CFD trading isn't available to Americans, but the rest of the world enjoys this major advantage as there are many different solid choices to trade them.
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Swing Trading: Advantages and Disadvantages

Swing trading is by far one of the most popular ways to trade financial markets. But as with any type of strategy, there are both pros and cons when using it, and knowing those ahead of time can be crucial in order to decide if it is for you in the long run.
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The New Carry Trade by Default

The Forex world is starting to see a new carry trade, albeit by default. This is because of the situation in Japan, and the fact that the nation will have to keep a free and easy monetary policy for quite some time.
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What is a Requote?

When you are trading Forex, you are going to come across the term “requote” sooner or later. While it isn’t all that common, it can happen and you should be aware of what it means and how to avoid them.
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Why to Trade Forex During a Recession

It is no secret that the recent debt crises in the PIIGS countries and the US, coupled with a crippling natural disaster in Japan, have rocked the financial markets worldwide. Forex trading may be a great way to stay afloat in a sinking market.
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AUD/NZD Waiting For a Catalyst

Commodity currencies have been among the best performing Forex instruments of past few months, especially the New Zealand Dollar, which continues to get stronger seemingly every day. Not only against the US Dollar, but in relation to its peers as well.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/07/AUD-NZD-Waiting-For-a-Catalyst/8411

Is EUR/GBP Ready to Resume Downtrend?

The Euro stabilized to some degree in days following the agreement to aid Greece for the second time. It seems that fears about possible dissolution of the common currency are gone, at least for now.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/07/Will-EUR-GBP-Resume-Downtrend/8420

EUR/USD Daily Chart and Signal

When reading any newspaper, it seems like a rough landscape for the EUR, since Eurozone leaders are focusing on the region's current debt problems while US leaders are struggling to reign in projected future defaults. A first look at the pair looks unpromising, but I think there's a chance for profits if we look at the cycles found in the charts.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/07/EUR-USD-Chart-and-Signal/8429

GBP/JPY Testing 126.60 Support

One of the most popular speculative currency pair is the GBP/JPY or “Beast” as it is commonly known in trading circles. The reason is simple – this cross tends to have large price swings and can be very volatile. This translates to potentially good trading opportunities, hence the popularity.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/07/GBP-JPY-Testing-Support/8439

Common Currencies Downtrending On the Short-Term Trend

The EUR/USD , GBP/USD and USD/JPY downtrending on the Very Short-Term Trend
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/Common-Currencies-Downtrending-On-the-Short-Term-Trend/8469

EUR/USD Trading Signal - August 03, 2011

EUR/USD signal based on Fibonacci levels.  Good for 2-3 days.

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/EUR-USD-Trading-Signal--August-03-2011/8478

EUR/USD Forecasting

After yesterday’s news in America, some people expect that a relative calm in the markets will be lived.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/EURUSD-Forecasting/8479

GBP/USD Breaks Above 1.6386

As expected GBP rallied to 1.6386 level on Friday. Earlier today it broke above this level and then this level acted as support.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/GBP-USD-Breaks-Above-Friday-s-Rally/8499

USD/JPY - Last Week's Rally Retraced

The Japanese Yen has rallied in the past three days, coming within 1.1 percent of its record 76.25 against the US Dollar reached in March, following the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. credit ratings. 
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/USD-JPY-Rally-Retraced/8511

EUR/USD - Watch Carefully Today

Probably the best to way to enter short is if EUR makes a new intra-day high and there is a divergence between the price and hourly oscillators. Look for this action around the opening of U.S. stock market trading.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/08/EUR-USD-Watch-Carefully-Today/8523

Debt Debate Inspires U.S. Dollar to New Record Low against Swiss Franc

With politics still the name of the game in the United States, the U.S. Dollar earlier hit a record low against the safe haven Swiss Franc, as well as a 4-month low against the Japanese Yen in Asian trading.

U.S. Dollar Falls Broadly in Asian Trading as Fear Reigns

The greenback was lower against its safe-haven counterparts the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, but also against commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which rallied on key economic data.

Euro Again on Defensive as Contagion Fears Continue

Investor fears of further debt contagion in the Eurozone sent the Euro broadly lower in Asian trading today, while the U.S. Dollar was also under pressure as the debt ceiling debate rages on in Washington.

Euro Falls on Possible Spanish Debt Downgrades

With Moody’s credit agency now reviewing the country’s situation, Spain may be the next country to have its debt status downgraded, once again fueling fears of contagion and instability in the region.

Investors Flock to Safe Havens as Market Jitters Resume

Continued market jitteriness and risk version is sending investors to the safe haven currencies at the expense of the Euro and AUD.

Bank of Japan Intervenes, Promises Continuous Measures to Curb Yen Rise

Earlier in the Asian trading session, the Bank of Japan followed through on earlier hints that an intervention in the Yen’s rise would be forthcoming.

Sell-Off in Equity Markets has Investors Rushing to Safe Haven Currencies

As analysts had previously suggested, the effects of the intervention efforts by the Swiss National Bank were short-lived.

US Credit Downgrade Sends Dollar Broadly Lower

Following Friday’s announcement by Standard & Poor’s rating agency that the U.S. credit rating was to be downgraded to AA+ from their top-of-the-line AAA rating, the U.S. Dollar is under heavy pressure.

Swiss Franc Pushed Higher on Safe Haven Bid

The fallout from the U.S. downgrade continues at a rapid clip; a full 24-hour cycle has passed, with Asian, then European and finally, U.S. markets all suffering from sell-off fever.

Fed Reaffirms USD Appropriate Carry Trade Choice for Next 2 Years

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented pledge to hold interest rates at the current record for a minimum of 2 years, the U.S. Dollar had edged up against the commodity-linked Australian Dollar.

Synchronized behavior amongst Traders brings better profits

Traders who align their transactions much like cicadas synchronize their chirping make a profit more of the time, according to a study of market behaviors.
The more often traders acted within the same one-second window, the more money they made at the end of the day, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Traders make a profit 60 percent of the time when they’re in sync, more than the overall average of 55 percent profitable trades, said study author Brian Uzzi, who is the co- director of the Northwestern Institute in Complex Systems at Northwestern University in Evanston.
Synchronized behavior benefits individuals and groups in a variety of animals, Uzzi said. Cicadas who chirp at the same time are less likely to be spotted by a predator, according to previous research. The cicada chorus, works like the trading patterns, arising spontaneously through local interactions, without a central leadership.
“If you go to animal behavior, synchronicity usually occurs when animals are faced by complex information problems, and any individual in a school of fish or flock of birds is overwhelmed,” Uzzi, who also teaches at the Kellogg School of Management, said today in a telephone interview. “So it gave me the hunch that where humans are likely to be overwhelmed by the pace or volume of information, we might be able to find synchronicity.”

Not ‘Groupthink’

Unlike groupthink, synchronicity arises from multiple people solving the same problem separately. Groupthink, which is comparable to herding in animals, happens when traders see others trading and join. Syncing doesn’t always lead to herding, and when it does, it usually takes place before the herd behavior, Uzzi said.
Uzzi’s study followed 66 traders over a year and a half. The traders are talking to a few people at once, ignoring what’s going on in the larger market, he said. Multiple traders are looking at different parts of the market and when they begin to process masses of information, such as IMs, RSS feeds, and news from various sources, they begin to act in concert. Trade after the sync, and the “solution” will be priced into the stock, Uzzi said.
The trades and the cicada chirps are examples of how complex systems emerge out of simple interactions. Although neither the cicadas nor the traders are centrally organized, their behavior isn’t random.
Trading houses may wish to design software that notices moments of sync, enabling traders to wager more money during that time, Uzzi said.

France and Germany have reached joint position on Greek bailout

EUR/USD gaps higher on headline; 1.4250 the high so far
The French delegation is being quoted over Reuters newswires as saying that Germany and France have reached a joint position and will submit this to Van Rompuy on Thursday morning in Brussels when Merkel, Sarkozy, Trichet, Barroso and Van Rompuy will meet.

Who in Forex is Buying Euro

With nothing but negative news coming out of the Euro Zone it is absolutely ridiculous to see the Euro penetrating moving averages to the upside and still holding its value against USD and other pairs. Who in their sane mentality would purchase a currency that has a bucket filled with problems? The big player in this market seems to be China. China recently outwardly announced an agreement to purchasing the euro zone’s sovereign debt. This is being done with hopes to alleviate the debt crisis. Oh how ever unlikely this seems. Even legendary investor George Soros indicates that the debt crisis is too much to handle. In reference to the idea that a mechanism is going to be put into place to allow weaker countries the ability exit the Euro Soros said is “probably inevitable”. If the euro zone is in such a jar of pickles then why in the world would the Euro be purchased. Perhaps it is more than necessary for China to keep the Euro afloat so that its products are bought by the Europeans.